Don Quixote of the blog DataViews
Don Quixote of the blog DataViews believes that while Strategy Lab Open is a great contest, the real competition is the market itself. This long term investor recognizes that while the SLO may be more geared toward short term investors,...
Strategy Lab Open Week Twenty-One: A return to volatility
June 27, 2008 07:04 PM
Investors continued to face choppy markets, scary economic news, and anxiety about this week's Fed meeting. And after seven months of rate cuts, the Federal Reserve decided that inflation was more of an issue than a possible recession leaving key interest rates unchanged at 2%. How will the market react to this news long term? Stay tuned.
Despite what economists have to say, plenty of people are worried about real estate, the price of oil and gasoline and inflation, as evidenced by a drop to a 16 year low in consumer confidence levels. Still, consumers aren't giving up on the stock market just yet, and neither should you. Our Strategy Lab Open stock pickers have found ways to make some pretty impressive profits since the competition kicked off in February - our top 25 stock pickers are up anywhere from 13% to 60% in that time period. Want to see how they're getting those gains? Take a look at the stocks on the move in Strategy Lab Open this week:
The five most widely held stocks in the competition remain unchanged, with Apple Computer (AAPL) in the top spot. A flurry of buying in Potash (POT) moved it past Google (GOOG) to take over second place. General Electric (GE) and Microsoft (MSFT) remained in fourth and fifth place.
Ultra short ETFs and energy stocks are where our stock pickers found profits last week. The UltraShort Financials ProShares ETF (SKF) was the most profitable stock in the competition last week, followed by Ford Motor Company (F), Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK), the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ETF (SRS) and oil services company Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB).
Two of our most widely held stocks - Apple and Google - also made our list of stocks that lost the most money for the week. They were joined on the list by Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), steel producer Gerdau S.A. (GGB) and Bank of America (BAC). Not sure if you should be buying or selling SIRI? Our bloggers have some pretty strong opinions on the company. Check out what they had to say in the Bull/Bear Report on Sirius.
What our stock pickers are buying and selling this week
The James River Coal Company (JRCC) led the list of most purchased stocks this week. As noted above, enough people added Potash to their portfolio to move it up one place on the most widely held list, which was also enough to put Potash on the most purchased list. Another basic materials and agricultural chemicals company, Agrium Inc (AGU), also made the list, as well as airlines Delta Airlines (DAL) and Continental (CAL).
Two of the most profitable stocks also made the most-sold list, perhaps due to profit taking. The UltraShort Financials ProShares ETF (SKF) and the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ETF (SRS) were joined on the most sold list by the UltraShort QQQ ProShares ETF (QID). Wireless broadband provider Alvarion (ALVR) and advanced video surveillance company Digital Ally (DGLY) rounded out the list of most sold stocks.
Click here to read the full article
7 big winners from our readers
May 30, 2008 08:01 PM
With the Lab buzzing in this round's busy market, we haven't looked too deeply into the portfolios of the everyday investors playing in our second Strategy Lab Open.
We probably should have. Because since trading started Feb. 1, the top players have racked up gains of around 30% while riding some spectacular stocks.
Our current leader, who goes by the handle "Duffbeer," has scored big with Research In Motion (RIMM) and Renasola (SOL). The first needs no explanation, except to say it's up about 50% since we began the round. The second is a Chinese solar play that is an intriguing find; new to the market this year, it has outpaced better-known names such as China Sunergy (CSUN) and LDK Solar (LDK).
With a $1.5 billion market capitalization, it's a small but very real company. It's in a volatile sector, though.
The Open seems to be a great place to find just such names.
A look into Jim Van Meerten's portfolio, for example, has been working in the coal mines, and it pays quite well. James River Coal (JRCC) is up more than 170% since the start of February; Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) is up 25%. It's no wonder his portfolio holds second position in the race.
And what a race it is. In the regular round of Strategy Lab, current leader Vad Yazvinski, aka The Amateur, would just make it into the top 20 among Open participants, who are playing for a spot in the next round of Strategy Lab. In the words of one of our players, they're giving the pros a spanking.
Just how are they beating the pros? Keep reading "7 big winners from our readers"
Jim Van Meerten — Arch Coal (ACI) - You may have come to the dance too late
July 4, 2008 08:32 AM
Arch Coal (ACI) is a stock with a GREAT following, but is that a plus or a minus? At the present time institutional shareholders have tied up almost 98% of the stock. An individual investor should always look for a... [ more ... ]
Randal LaBine — Will July 4th Weekend Bring A Rally? Or Panic? Or Both?
July 3, 2008 04:40 AM
Time for a context check. There will be a bear market rally at some point. The beginning of a bear market rally never feels good--usually you're so sick of the downtrend that you want to puke up your stocks at... [ more ... ]
Russ — Hot Steel - Lincoln Electric (LECO)
July 2, 2008 09:55 PM
After missing the strong run in steel stocks and steel prices, I wanted to see if there might be a related play that hadn't participated. Steel producers have been on a roll with strong demand around the world leading to... [ more ... ]
Jim Van Meerten — Where to invest
July 2, 2008 09:14 PM
We have a real puzzle going on. The economy seems to be contracting and major companies are laying off but at the same time all the things that drive the economy, like oil, steel, coal, commodities of all types are... [ more ... ]
Don Moncrief — The simple solution to this market
July 2, 2008 03:51 PM
It seems so very obvious how to fix this market, yet so many want to look for the "golden carrot" on the end of the stick. And, as long as that happens, the market will continue to suffer. So, what... [ more ... ]
To add an specific blogger's feed, simply go to their blog and click on their individual RSS link.
What is Strategy Lab Open?
Strategy Lab Open is the home of the new MSN Strategy Lab Qualifying Tournament. We're looking for the next great undiscovered investing guru. Someone who doesn't just pick hot stocks but who invests well, makes money and can teach others to do the same.
Performance: July 02, 2008
| Rank | Participant | NAV | %Gain | Total Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
aardvark | $15.91 | 59.10% | $1,591,004.61 |
 |
vanmeerten | $14.17 | 41.72% | $1,417,186.25 |
 |
rushabout | $14.00 | 27.65% | $1,399,599.47 |
 |
mccafferty | $13.04 | 25.78% | $1,303,906.33 |
 |
thestockguy | $11.22 | 23.93% | $1,122,342.56 |
| See All Rankings | ||||
| See Top 50 Posts | ||||
Despite a horrible environment for stocks, investors are still willing to reward companies that innovate with products that can deliver huge revenue growth. Such is the case with Elan Pharmaceuticals (ELN). The company recently announced positive trial for an Alzheimer drug pushed shares of ELN $10 higher over the last month. That is a strong gain, no doubt, but can the stock go higher?
I think so. We are in the midst of horrible market conditions. Speculation is being shunned and as such stories like ELN have a limited pool of willing buyers. Should that mindset change ELN has the potential to double in value in my opinion. What do you think? I will report back on ELN with your opinions in next week's Bull/Bear Report.
Looking for inspiration? Want to get an interesting discussion going? Write about the question above on your blog and you could see your answer featured here next week.
Good Investing
June 27, 2008 06:34 PM
I don't think I can stress enough, that the strategy lab is both an investment tool, and a game.
Early in my posts, I stated a goal to beat the indexes, and I certainly have soundly trounced them so far this year, with room to spare. Naturally, I wanted to do well in this lab performance also.
I have to say, I have accomplished both of those goals, and to some degree, I have "led the pack", without violating too many investment rules.
The first rule of GOOD investing, is to be diversified. I look at both the open, and other portfolio's in the lab, and too often, I find that rule has been broken. Well, to be fair, the regular lab has less beginning dollars and that will force them into fewer stock selections. It does however show investors that money can be made, and you don't have to have millions to do it.
Then I look at some of the portfolios in the open, and I don't know whether to congratulate them, or to have pity on them. Yes, maybe the way to win the open lab is to have a few stocks that do very well, but I contend it is a poor way to manage a portfolio. But, if you can make the big bucks that way, should I be one to criticize? Well, I am going to anyway!
I see portfolio's with 25% in a single stock. What a HORRIBLE thing to teach other investors to do, and should we not lead by EXAMPLE?
I do not want to give percentages of what portion of an individuals portfolio should not be exceeded because there are so many different investment amounts. If you have few dollars to invest, you may need to invest in only a few winners. But, as your portfolio grows, the best bang for the buck has to be to diversify.
Read on to learn the smart way to use Strategy Lab Open stock picks in your portfolio.
Commodities Trading: General Mills (GIS)
June 27, 2008 06:30 PM
After the recent non-traditional defensive pick, I wanted to look at a more traditional defensive play involving commodities trading -- food stocks.
Last week, General Mills (GIS) issued a press release raising guidance for their 4th quarter and full FY08 earnings and providing guidance for FY09. Excluding some mark-to-market gains on commodities options, GIS expects earnings of $3.52 a share for FY08 when they report this week. The company expects to earn between $3.78 and $3.83 for FY09 excluding any one-time adjustments.
At the 19 June close of $62.79, that puts GIS at a ttm PE of 17.8 excluding items and a fwd PE of between 16.6 and 16.4 on the '09 guidance. The mid-point of the guidance would be 8.1% earnings growth over this year and according to Yahoo analysts expect a 5-year earnings growth rate of 8.7%. GIS pays a quarterly dividend of 40 cents a share for a yield of a little over 2.5%.
How does General Mills stack up against the competition? Keep reading to find out.
